The National Weather Service Predicts Above Average Hurricane Activity in the Atlantic This Year
June 1 MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30TH. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS AND HURRICANES ARE 10 AND 6...RESPECTIVELY.
NOAA’s 2005 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates a 70% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. This outlook is produced by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and National Hurricane Center (NHC).
The outlook calls for 12-15 tropical storms, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes, and 3-5 of these becoming major hurricanes. This prediction reflects a very likely continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995.
The predicted 2005 activity reflects 1) an expected continuation of conditions which have favored above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, and 2) an expected continuation of warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The outlook also reflects the expectation of ENSO-neutral conditions (no El Niño or La Niña) during August-October, the peak months of the hurricane season. An updated Atlantic hurricane outlook will be issued in early August.
The Pacific has already seen its first cyclone, Adrian, in the month of May. Such early activity in the Pacific is uncommon. Learn more about tropical storm activity on NOAA's excellent website.
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