Category 5 Katrina bearing down on the Gulf Coast 8/28/05  | Devastating hurricanes will become more common over the coming decades according to a study published in Nature. The report by scientists at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta linked rising sea temperatures due to global warming to an increase in hurricane intensity and frequency. The researchers arrived at the conclusion after examining data for a range of climate variables thought to contribute to the formation of category 4 and 5 hurricanes.
Georgia Tech climate researcher Judith Curry warned that rising sea temperatures will mean more devastating hurricanes like Katrina. 'The inference is that if you keep warming things up, you're going to get more intense storms,' she said. We need to say to the public that there is this possible risk of increasing hurricane intensity associated with global warming," warns Curry.
In an upcoming article for the journal Science, Curry argues that, over the last 35 years, greenhouse gases have warmed sea surface temperatures worldwide by one degree. Over that same span, she says, the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes doubled across the globe. That extra degree can provide a lot of extra fuel for the hurricanes, Curry stresses. She points to how Katrina jumped from Category 1 to 5 status after crossing a pool of 90 degree water in the Gulf of Mexico. If those temperatures keep rising, she worries, even more powerful hurricanes will be unleashed.
Acosta, another scientist, notes that the government's hurricane forecasters have heard these dire warnings before, "and they're not impressed. They're chalking these storms up to normal weather cycles."NOAA conference seeks to improve hurricane tracking, warnings With the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season less than three months away, a national conference of hurricane experts, stakeholders and federal agencies is meeting to focus on this year's season and the seasons to come.
The 60th annual Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, headed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, launched Monday in Mobile, Alabama. The weeklong conference reviews the 2005 hurricane season and lays the groundwork for research, forecast and response plans for this year's hurricane season, which starts June 1.
Jack Bevan, a specialist with the National Hurricane Center, provided comments during a press conference. "By all standards, the 2005 hurricane season was the busiest on record," Bevan said. "We had 27 named storms; the most hurricanes ever - 15; (the) only season on record where we had four Category 5 hurricanes; and four major storms made landfall in the United States for the first time ever."
 Given those numbers, he said, it was not surprising "that we had tremendous loss of life and property damage. In the season as a whole, we had 1,400 people were killed by storms, including 1,200 in Katrina alone." The United States, he said, had $100 billion in property damage which made the 2005 season the costliest hurricane season on record since 1928. The large number of fatalities and record damage caused by storms during the 2005 hurricane season indicates that meteorologists and other scientists who forecast and follow the storms still have a lot of work to do to improve their ability to inform and warn the general public.Federal agencies involved in hurricane re-search, forecasting and response and emergency management agencies are attending the weeklong conference with the hopes of improving ways to provide more accurate storm information.
This year the conference includes representatives from 11 federal agencies, the American Red Cross, the local emergency management community, a large group from the academic community and a number of entities from the private sector.Bevan said the death and destruction caused during the 2005 hurricane season occurred despite improvements in hurricane forecasting and monitoring. "It's been 75 years since we had more than 1,000 people killed in the United States. Let's see if we can make it a long time again."
One area where improvement is needed, Bevan said, is intensity forecasting to better predict rapid changes in a storm's strength as it approaches landfall.One new product for the 2006 hurricane season is tropical cyclone wind probability, which replaces the landfall probability graphs that accompany hurricane advisories. The graphic shows the probability of hurricane-force winds affecting an area. "Instead of just giving you the probability that the center of the storm is going to pass by you, we're going to give you the probability that you're going to get certain wind speeds at your location," Bevan said, adding that the new information should better help inform the general public. The a hurricane-wind probability graphic will be included in this year's hurricane advisories issued once systems develop in the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic.
The hurricane center has experimented with wind probability information for several years, Bevan said. "They are now going to be operational, full-time, with every advisory issued," he said. "Hopefully, they will give more specific information about (storm) impact rather than how close the hurricane will come to a specific area. "Saying that you've (got) a 10 percent chance of hurricane force winds is better than saying you have a 10 percent chance that the hurricane will pass within 65 nautical miles of an area.
"What won't come out of the conference is this season's NOAA hurricane forecast, which usually is issued in May. But there is no saving grace on the horizon to stop what could be another active season, said Jack Beven. "We are in an active cycle of storms, and there is nothing to indicate that won't happen," Beven said. "It's too early to tell what will happen." A weak La Nina, which is conducive to hurricane-formation, still is in place and forecast to persist through June. It also is too early to tell if residual warm water from the mild winter in the Gulf region can impact the season.
Katrina, Rita and Wilma all made the all-time top 10 list for costliest disasters in insured losses. Katrina topped the list at $45 billion, while Rita and Wilma's estimated $10 billion were just below 2004's Hurricane Ivan, which was fifth at $11.68 billion, said Samuel P. Williamson, federal coordinator for meteorology.
The year was strange, not only for the number of storms -- and three of the most intense Atlantic storms on record -- but for where the storms developed. None of the Category 5 hurricanes that formed grew out of the Cape Verde Islands region off Africa, Beven said. Instead, hurricanes Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma all formed in the Caribbean and grew rapidly. Katrina and Rita grew into "monsters" in the Gulf, Beven said.
He hopes everyone is ready when June 1 rolls around.
Major hurricane warning for America's northeast
What if a major storm hit the northeast coast? How can we prepare to cope?  |  |
Experts from AccuWeather.com, based in Pennsylvania, announced that the 2006 US hurricane season, which runs from May 15 to November 30, will be more active than normal but not as busy as last year. They also said northeastern America would be hit by a major hurricane within five years.
The chief forecaster of AccuWeather’s hurricane centre, Joe Bastardi, said the northeast was overdue for a “powerful hurricane” and weather patterns in the oceans made it a question of when, not if. “It’s not hype,” Mr Bastardi said at a Times Square news conference.
A normal hurricane season consists of 11 named storms, five or six of which reach hurricane strength, said Ken Reeves, senior meteorologist and director of forecast operations at AccuWeather.The firm says this year’s hurricane season will not quite top last year’s 26 named storms and 14 hurricanes.
Two things all boaters should prepare in advance to protect their property and their lives are: (1) a safe harbor plan for their vessels and (2) and evacuation route and plan for their families. Protecting lives and property, in that order, are the goals for hurricane preparation.  |  | |
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